FIA takes out a new set of regulations for F1 every year. Its done the same for the forthcoming 2022 season with a string of rule changes in store in the land of F1
Typically the new regulations are not all that different from the previous years, apart from a few minor change or “tweaks”. But once every few years, FIA like to mix things up.
F1 Rules And Regulations: Why Are The Guidelines Persistently Tailored?
A comprehensive change in the set of regulations is brought about which winds the clock back to midnight and forces all teams to start again from scratch. This change in “ERA” is essential for the sport to keep it competitive and relevant at the same time.
Often, the teams that adapt to this change the earliest end up dominating for the entire era. Think of Mercedes in the hybrid era from 2014 or Red Bull in the KERS era or Ferrari in the V8 era. Some say that this long-lasting dominance makes the sport “monotonous” and “predictable”. However, the top tier car racing championship must not be labelled are monotonous and predictable in FIA’s eyes.
The past three era changes brought about three different dominant teams and that is what the FIA wishes to do here. They want to alter the pecking order and make F1 interesting for the casual fan as well and to do this, they have decided to have a complete regulation change starting from 2021. But due to Covid-19, the teams were not ready to undergo these changes due to Covid related restrictions. Nevertheless, it’s been shifted to 2022.
So coming to the real questions at hand
- Is the promise of stirring things up to the extent of our expectations going to be materialised?
- Will Williams see the top step of the podium again?
- Will Mercedes be a back-marker team?
- Will Mazepin win the driver’s championship?
Well, the answers are No, No, No and definitely No.
Our Predictions For The F1 2022 Season In The Aftermath Of The Rule Changes
As pessimistic as it might sound, sadly, this is how things are going to be. Of course, there is going to be a shuffle in the pecking order but the top teams will still be somewhere at the top. It is however possible to see a couple of teams getting to the top and couple of teams tumbling down but overall, the top teams are still going to be the dominant forces.
Our prediction is that the top team next year will be either Mercedes, Ferrari or Red Bull. Two out these three teams will be fighting for the title but we cannot count out other teams give them a tough time here on. Here are some reasons:
How The F1 2022 Soiree Is Likely To Unravel In The Midst Of The Rule Changes
1. Driver Pairings
Most of the top drivers have already been acquired by the top teams and have long term contracts in place which means “The best drivers are with the best teams”. Even though winning the driver’s championship is highly dependent on the performance of the car, a top driver always offers an edge and in a battle between two similarly powered cars, the team with the better driver prevails.
See Max Verstappen and Valtteri Bottas for instance. This year they both are in similarly competent cars and the difference in results that they both have been getting is not even comparable. And since the driver salary is not a part of the budget cap, the top teams have enough spare change to retain the top talent too.
2. Engine Manufacturers
Currently in Formula 1, there are only 4 engine manufacturers, namely Mercedes, Ferrari, Redbull/Honda and Renault. All other teams acquire their engines from either of these 4 manufacturers. As an exception, Renault engines are not used by any other team and I wonder why.
In Christian Horner’s words, “Renault weren’t supplying engines meriting the payment”, spicy! Anyway, all the engine manufactures have always been better then their respective engine customers and that will continue to be the case. Its down to the fact that manufacturers can manufacture an engine or the body around, based on their preferences and will always be able to come up with a more compact and synergistic design in comparison to its customers.
Engine development and body design go hand in hand whereas the customers get the final engine plans very late. Henceforth they have to start working on the body without complete knowledge of the engine shape and mounting points and have to make compromises to compensate for the same. Having said this, we predict that one of the three engine manufacturers will only be at the top.
3. The core team
The best engineers, strategists, analysts, marketers and administrators are mostly a part of the top teams. And probabilistically speaking, the biggest brains often produce the fastest cars. Even though the teams will not have too much of a differential in terms of team staff due to the budget cap, the best minds in the sport have already chosen the horse they want to bet on. A mid or bottom table team will not have the mentality or relevant experience to race at the front of the grid and this will reflect in the performance of the cars.
4. Team Ownerships
2021 saw several teams undergoing changes in their ownership, top management or chief sponsors and all these changes act as cogs in a wheel. Now you must be pondering that these changes are done to improve the team but that improvement does not come overnight.
It’s a change with long term gains in mind. This makes it a mammoth task for the new owners or administration to adjust to the team whilst excelling with the new regulations that too at the first time of asking. The current top teams namely Mercedes, Red bull and Ferrari (and maybe McLaren) have had no significant changes in this respect and will hence be able to focus unidirectionally.
This may disappoint the fans who have been waiting for the Mercedes domination to end or for Williams to step back onto the podiums again. But all hope is not lost. There is one factor that may cause this predictability for 2022 to be tossed out of the window.
One factor that can nullify all the aforementioned impediments and give us a grid that is unimaginable is frugality. While the moneyed teams may have the best minds, the teams living on a shoe string have the most frugal minds. The art of doing the most with the least is going to be a weapon far superior to any other advantage.
With the budget cap, it becomes even more important to innovate. Keeping in mind that regulation changes are very new, there will be several loopholes and the team that’s able to exploit them while being most efficient with money will emerge on top.
As unlikely as it seems, we all can at least hope to witness a lotus 79-esqe innovation or Brawn GP-esqe surprise for that’s what makes both, the purists and casual watchers jump off their seats.