With the Euro 2024 being only a couple of months away, bettors have already begun to wonder whether it is wiser to bet on the outright winner or place smaller wagers on individual games and matches
Outright betting has become very popular lately, especially as more and more bookmakers, including Deutsche casinos offering sports gambling, devote time and effort to compile early odds for leagues’ and tournaments’ winners and present their customers with lucrative and compelling prices.
But is it really the best choice to go for outright bets in big international football competitions, or is it better to avoid long-term, future bets that end up tying your bankroll to wagers that will only materialize in the long run?
Outright bets are not uncommon amongst professional bettors, which means that there must be something in those future wagers that adds value or at least optimizes the expected value of bets. If pro punters are to choose such kinds of bets, then maybe the more casual punters give it a shot too! But is it worth it? Let’s see.
In outright betting, people back their predictions of the final winner of a tournament, league, or any other big competition for that matter, whether we are talking about football betting, cricket betting, or any other sports betting. Sometimes, these wagers are placed before the tournament begins, but lately, we are seeing a lot of betting sites and sports gambling platforms retain these markets open even after the competition has begun. Now, the initial odds may present unique opportunities for betting, especially if they are to be changed as we progress down the tour.
Consider, for instance, France which has been one of the two major favorites – along with England- to win the Euro 2024, being given at pretty good odds in the early estimations of bookmakers and online casinos. If backing France to be the outright winner of the competition had initially great value, because betting sites underrated their strength, then having placed a future bet on France would certainly make sense.
As the games progress, however, betting on France to win the Euro 2024 would certainly lose this value, either because of the corrective mechanisms undertaken by bookies or simply by the fact that the team exhibits a stunning performance down the road. Now, quite clearly, betting on France with no good expected value is not a wise choice for any bettor.
Having said this, outright betting is meaningful only when there is value and to be able to capture this value, you need to be able to spot when the market is inefficient. If outright betting allows you to lock in value in odds, which are expected to fluctuate during the entire tournament, then it should be considered a viable choice for punters, while in cases where punters have some sort of edge, then it should be considered as a definite choice!
So outright bets, of course, entail the element of risk, but they may yield profitable returns. If this is so, why shouldn’t we all opt for outright betting then?
The problem with outright betting is that it ties up bettors’ money on wagers, which will not soon materialize. Tying up money means having locked your bankroll and this brings to the forefront of attention the issue of opportunity costs.
If money has been used for outright bets, chances are that you may end up with no sufficient bankroll to deal with short-term value bets as they emerge. For those of you who are generally proficient in finding value in offered bets across markets and leagues (or even in the same league), having money locked to an outright wager implies that you are losing potential expected value. Or simply put, you are losing the opportunity to take advantage of value anywhere else but the future bet you have your bankroll in. So, if you have a specific, limited bankroll you may need to think twice (and more) before tying it all up on an outright bet.
So, what’s the verdict you will most likely wonder! Well, it’s not all black and white here. Outright bets make sense when the expected value outweighs the opportunity costs. But this is nothing but an easy thing to know in advance or predict, right? There is no recipe or standard strategy for bettors to follow, but when you find that the market is inefficient or that some markets are underrated by betting sites in big international football leagues, then you should probably go after outright bets!