The NL East, a division known for its competitive edge and pitching prowess, presented mixed performances in the 2023 season
With the collective efforts of its five teams resulting in a 104 OPS+ and a 101 ERA+, it was clear that the division held its ground firmly despite the Nationals’ less stellar pitching dragging down the division’s overall numbers.
Impressively, this solid performance unfolded even as the division navigated through the absence of veteran Mets superstars like Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer, and Justin Verlander at various intervals over the past seasons. The 2023 season saw the rise of promising talents such as Kodai Senga, Jesús Luzardo, and nearly the entire Atlanta rotation, who filled the void with commendable prowess, offering a glimpse into a thrilling future of NL East pitching.
However, not all tales were of ascension; pitchers including Aaron Nola, David Peterson, and Chris Sale, who transitioned from the AL East to the NL with a December trade, witnessed a performance downturn. Though their 2023 seasons might not have reflected their peak capabilities, these pitchers displayed enough potential, suggesting a promising resurgence and a return to form in 2024.
Aaron Nola
Aaron Nola, a pivotal figure in the Phillies’ rotation, encountered an unexpected dip in performance throughout the 2023 season. After boasting a commendable 3.25 ERA and an even more impressive 2.58 FIP in 2022, Nola’s metrics slipped to a 4.46 ERA and a 4.03 FIP. Though these figures do not fall disastrously below the league average, they are certainly not reflective of the high standards Nola has established over his career.
Despite this, the Phillies showcased their faith in his ability to rebound by securing him with a generous 7-year, $172 million contract in November. The deal notably lacks a no-trade clause, offering the Phillies flexibility in the future.
Throughout his tenure, Nola has consistently outperformed the average, except a challenging 2021 marked by a 4.63 ERA, albeit with a strong 3.37 FIP indicating potential underperformance. His increase in home runs per nine and decrease in strikeouts per nine in 2023, the worst figures since his rookie year, contributed significantly to his higher ERA and FIP.
Traditionally adept at suppressing home runs with commendable exit velocities and groundball rates, Nola saw a decline in these areas last season, elevating his home run to fly ball rate from 11.0% in 2022 to an alarming 19.0% in 2023. This spike can often indicate a likely regression to the mean in the future, suggesting potential for improvement if Nola can enhance his exit velocity metrics.
David Peterson
David Peterson’s 2023 campaign was challenging, to say the least. Across 111.0 innings of work, primarily stepping in for an often-injured Mets rotation, Peterson struggled to find his form, yielding a 5.03 ERA and a 4.34 FIP. His season took a turn for the worse as he underwent hip surgery in November, setting him on a path to rejoin the Mets around early-to-mid May 2024.
Despite these setbacks and being the least accomplished of the three pitchers discussed in terms of major league success, I still see the potential for Peterson to contribute significantly to the Mets as the season progresses. His peak performance came in 2022, when he notched a 3.83 ERA and a 3.64 FIP over 105.2 innings, underscoring a promising, albeit inconsistent, talent.
Originally impressing during the shortened 2020 season, Peterson has not established himself as a top-tier pitching prospect. However, despite his struggles with hard-hit rates, his success has come from an atypical combination of inducing ground balls and striking out hitters at a decent rate. In 2023, his strikeouts diminished while his ground ball rates improved, leading to a decline in overall effectiveness.
The quality of Peterson’s pitches also declined; he relies on a five-pitch mix but didn’t see exceptional movement on any. His slider, which was highly effective in 2022 with a 47.9% whiff rate and a .292 SLG, faltered in 2023. Last season, it only managed a 39.4% whiff rate and allowed a poor.472 SLG. Furthermore, while not previously overwhelming, Peterson’s four-seam fastball and sinker suffered from a drop in velocity and poorer placement, making them less effective and contributing to his overall dip in performance.
His average pitch-level value (PLV) decreased from 4.94 in 2022 to a below-average 4.82 in 2023. Amid these challenges, Peterson’s determination and unique skills are intriguing for the Mets as they eye the postseason. His ability to bounce back could well become one of the more captivating Pitcher Win Props of the 2024 season.
Chris Sale
Chris Sale’s 2023 season marked his most extensive workload since 2019, delivering a solid performance across 102.2 innings over 20 starts, culminating in a 4.30 ERA. While these results didn’t mirror the elite levels of his peak MLB years, Sale’s primary achievement was maintaining his health throughout the season, aside from a mid-season break due to shoulder inflammation. Now in the Atlanta Braves rotation and approaching his age-34 season, Sale stands at a crossroads where a strong 2024 could reaffirm his status as a top-tier pitcher.
The key to Sale’s potential resurgence lies in his health and performance, elevating beyond the decent 4.30 ERA he posted in 2023. To stand in an already competitive Braves rotation, Sale needs to improve his ERA, leveraging his typically good strikeout, walk, and home run rates, reflected in a promising FIP of 3.80 last season—a figure reminiscent of his prime.
Historically, Sale has been distinguished by his unique pitching arsenal—particularly his four-seamer and slider, both known for exceptional results thanks to their elite horizontal movement. This movement has generated high whiff rates and, consequently, high strikeout rates. However, in 2023, while Sale’s pitches retained their characteristic movement, they lacked the velocity seen in past seasons.
Notably, in 2019, his velocities were similar, and his performance notably declined from the superior levels achieved in 2018, when his four-seamer averaged over 95 mph, earning him an elite 2.11 ERA and 1.98 FIP. For Sale to reclaim his position as an elite pitcher in 2024, a return to higher velocities, combined with his unique pitch movement, could be pivotal.
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